Yesterday I gave my quick-reaction picks to the NFL lines. That was for the benefit of true degenerates, but today is for those who want to retire at 30. Every Tuesday I will bring you picks for all the NFL action and highlight where to find the free money. The free money picks will be anywhere from three to five games and then of course you get the Lucas Lock of the Week.
Before we get to the free money, here are my picks for the rest of the week. * Denotes the home team.
Miami* +7 over Dallas
St. Louis* -3 over Arizona
San Francisco +3 over Baltimore*
Buffalo +8 over NY Jets*
Tampa Bay +3 over Tennessee*
Minnesota +8.5 over Atlanta*
Oakland* -3.5 over Chicago
Seattle* -4 over Washington
Denver +6.5 over San Diego*
Kansas City* +10 over Pittsburgh
Giants +7 over *New Orleans
If you want to have fun and lay down a couple dollars read no further. My amateur picks are above.
Only future yacht owners from this point forward.
Green Bay -6 over Detroit*
Leading off with a team giving six points on the road? Absolutely. Detroit gave up 35 points to Cam Newton last week at home. Sure Cam is a rookie sensation but his team is 2-8. This game was closer than the score would indicate and the Lions only prevailed due to intercepting Newton passes four times. Guess how many interceptions Aaron Rodgers has thrown this season. You got it, FOUR. On the flip side the Packers played what by their standards was a sloppy game against Tampa. It won’t happen again. Rodgers is going to party like it’s 2008 when the Lions went 0-16.
Houston -3.5 over Jacksonville*
Thank you Matt Leinart for being such a miserable failure. Thanks to you I get a ridiculous line against the 3-7 Jacksonville Jaguars. What are the line makers smoking? Well, they are figuring that with Matt Schaub out teams will load the box and force Leinart to win the game. Here is the dirty little secret, that is exactly how teams have already been playing the Texans. Since Andre Johnson went down (he’s back this week) the Texans run game has been at a historical level and that is with teams bring extra defenders and daring the Texans to throw. I love free money.
Cincinnati* -7.5 over Cleveland
This is short and simple. The 6-4 Bengals are really good but they have been busy playing the Ravens and the Steelers. The 4-6 Browns are really bad but they have been busy playing the juice that leaked out the bottom of the garbage bag. You think that’s a joke? The combined record of the four teams the Browns have beaten: 10-30. Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards against the Ravens. Kid is legit and he actually wins unlike our friend in Carolina. This one is a bloodbath.
LUCAS LOCK OF THE WEEK
Carolina -3.5 over Indianapolis*
Only one explanation for this. Vegas got its holidays confused and thought it was Christmas. They are truly in the giving spirit with this one and I am oh so thankful. With the exception of one weird week, the Panthers always put up points even though they lose. The Colts cannot score regardless of opponent. DONE. Fine, here are some numbers.
In the last five weeks the Panthers averaged 19.2 point per game (and don’t forget there is a three point game in there). Over the same stretch the Colts averaged… wait for it…. 8.8. That is 96 to 44. But you say, “Chase how can I take the Panthers on the road when they have the 31st ranked scoring defense?” Guess who has the 32nd ranked scoring defense. Wow, you’re such a good guesser! You got it, the Colts.
In honor of this joke of a line I will end with one of my own.
Q: What do you call a team only getting 3.5 points despite being in the bottom three in both points scored per game (13) and points allowed per game (30)?
A: FREE MONEY
As my friends Kanye and 50 would say, “if they hate them let them hate and watch the money pile up.”