It’s been a long time, not only for the Tycoon but also for this blog. Hibernation season is over and it’s time to make you some money. Let’s get it.
The best advice I can give in week one is to stay away. The more data we have the easier it is to project an outcome and take advantage of a faulty line. While it’s true that the lines makers know less early, so does everyone else. Bet for fun but save the big bucks for a few weeks down the road when we have a little clearer picture of the league.
If you weren’t with us last season you may be wondering about my credentials as an NFL betting expert. My answer would be that you are no longer welcome here as you must never doubt the Tycoon. In terms of something slightly more tangible, last season we went 15-8-1 on the “free money picks” and 5-2 on the “Lucas Lock of the Week”.
My strategy is simple: only bet when you find a line you love. This being the case, each week I will pick all the lines for the heck of it but only give you a few worth throwing coin at. The final of those picks is known as the Lucas Lock. To the picks!
*Denotes the home team
Bears* -9.5 over Colts
Bills +3 over Jets*
Vikings* -3.5 over Jacksonville
Lions* -7 over Rams
Chiefs* +3 over Atlanta
Packers* -5 over 49ers
Buccaneers* +2.5 over Carolina
Seahawks -2.5 over Cardinals*
Broncos* -1.5 over Steelers
Ravens* -6 over Bengals
Raiders* -1 over Chargers*
Free Money Picks
Miami +13 over Texans*
Of the free money picks, this one is the lowest on the confidence meter. There is one reason for that and his name is Ryan Tannehill. If Matt Moore was still the starter I would love this line as I think he is a competent and slightly underrated quarterback. Given that the offense is drastically different you have to take the data from last season with a grain of salt. Still, I think it bears some consideration and I think the Dolphins are being mischaracterized as a bottom feeder.
First let me say that 13 point lines should only be reserved for great football teams. I do not believe the Texans to be a great football team. On the Dolphins side, you’re probably thinking that there is no way you can bet them because they sucked last year. That’s not entirely true. The Dolphin went 9-4 over their last 13 games and 4-1 in their last five. In fact, they finished last season with a positive point differential. Will the Dolphins win? I doubt it but I think they cover.
Patriots -5.5 over *Titans
“But Tom Brady didn’t look great in the preseason. Maybe he’s getting old.”
Get out of here, this is sandbagging Bill Belichick we are talking about. It’s Tom Brady vs. Jake Locker. Give me Brady by at least 10 points.
Eagles -8.5 over *Browns
Do I understand why people continue to think the Eagles are an elite team? No. Still, they have an explosive offense and an improved defense. More than anything I just like having money against a team I know is truly awful.
Lucas Lock Of The Week
Saints* -7 over Redskins
I just don’t buy the Saints as a team destined to fail. I’m not sure what I think about their season as a whole but I love them in this game. They still have a high powered offense but more importantly they are motivated to blow someone out. A team furious with the league in their first game since the suspensions and the game is in New Orleans? You don’t think they want to make a statement? It’s hard to predict how good this team will be but we have the luxury of knowing the foot won’t come off the gas.