It is a dark day when the tycoon only hits .500 on his locks but isn’t it nice to know that even on a bad week you’re going 2-2. By the way one of the wins was the lock of the week so your money should have been heavy on that game anyway. Last week we got New Orleans and Tebow and lost with the Pack and Falcons.
Are you curious as to why this week is titled “Money Where My Mouth Is”? It’s because I will be watching all the games this Sunday in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada. That’s right, after next week you can come visit me at whichever casino I decide to buy with my winnings. In honor of the occasion you get three extra free money picks this week including two locks of the week. It’s like they knew I was coming and decided to throw my birthday party a week early. As always, the non-free money picks are just for amateurs and don’t forget to load up on the undefeated Lucas Lock of the Week.
Pittsburgh* -14 over Cleveland
Cincinnati* -3 over Houston
Minnesota +7 over Detroit*
Kansas City -9 over NY Jets*
Atlanta -3 over Carolina*
Baltimore* -16 over Indianapolis
Tampa Bay -1 over Jacksonville*
Denver -3.5 over Chicago*
San Diego* -4.5 over Buffalo
Free Money Picks
Miami* -3 over Philadelphia
One great way to find value is to bet on a line Vegas doesn’t believe in but has to set to counter the public money. This is a case of two teams that the average fan still views through the lens of what they were supposed to be. You’re getting the much better team at home and the line is only three. The home team generally get three points which represents home field advantage. That means Vegas is saying these two teams are even.
Since their 0-7 start the Dolphins are 4-1 with the one loss being to the Cowboys by one on the road. Their average margin of victory in those four games is 21.5. Over the same stretch the Eagles are 1-4 including a loss at home to the Cardinals and a 17 point beating in Seattle.
New England +8.5 over Washington*
Thank goodness Belichick decided to go with the “I’m pulling my starters” screw you instead of the “I’m going to cover” screw you against the Colts. That kept this line from being 14 and now we get an easy one. Pats will use the sloppy finish against Indy as motivation and dismantle the Redskins by at least 20. If the Skins can lose to Carolina by 13, Buffalo by 23 and the Jets by 15 I think they can handle losing to the Pats by nine.
Green Bay -10 over Oakland*
Green Bay let us down last week but they won’t do it again. A team simply can’t compete when they have to worry about Tim Tebow and Aaron Rodgers at the same time.
New York +3.5 over Dallas*
Dallas is a little bit of a fraud and New York has to win to keep playoff hope alive. I always like an underdog team that has to have a win. Last three games for the Cowboys have been a loss to Arizona, a one point win over Miami and a three point overtime win over the Redskins. This game is going to be close but I like the Giants. If you feel good about it I wouldn’t advise against taking them to win outright.
Seattle* -6.5 over St. Louis
Really Monday Night Football? Really? I am not recommending you watch this game, only that you pick up some free cash on it. Seattle is not terrible and St. Louis is. Of their 10 losses only one was by less than seven and they were both to the Cardinals. Their 10 losses have come by an average of 16.6 points a game. Seattle won 24-7 at St. Louis in week 11. A 6.5 point line is a gift.
Lucas Locks Of The Week
New Orleans +4 over Tennessee*
Ok so the statistics don’t back me up here so you will just have to trust me. Every once in awhile you have to bet a game simply because one team is so much better than the other and that is the case here. The Titans have the 18th ranked pass defense in the league and I think the Saints are finding another level. That said, the Saints have only covered one road game all year and have road losses to St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Tennessee is actually 3-1 over their last three albeit against weak opponents. I know, not my most convincing argument but I can’t stop looking at that line and knowing the Saints are getting a double digit win. Don’t be a wimp, just do it.
San Fransisco -4 over Arizona*
This just in the 49ers are really good and the Cardinals are not. Yes the Cardinals played well Sunday in a victory over the Cowboys and that’s why we have this friendly line. However, before Sunday the Cardinals had two home wins and they came against Carolina (4-8) and St. Louis (2-10). The 49ers beat the Cardinals by 15 three weeks ago. Home field isn’t worth 10 points to the Cards.
Warning: Patrick Willis is likely out for this game but I still trust the 49ers.