Only disappointment this week was learning the Ferrari dealer doesn’t have a cyber monday sale. That’s right, free money picks went 3-1 last week including a win for the Lucas Lock of the Week. Plenty of room on this bandwagon so let’s get to the picks. As always I pick every game for the heck of it but skip to the bottom for the locks. This week you get three free money picks and of course the lock of the week.
Seattle* +3 over Philadelphia
Buffalo* -1 over Tennessee
Kansas City +8 over Chicago*
Oakland -3 over Miami*
Cincinnati +7.5 over Pittsburgh*
Baltimore -6.5 over Cleveland
NY Jets -3 over Washington*
Carolina +3 over Tampa Bay*
San Francisco* -13.5 over St. Louis
Dallas -4.5 over Arizona*
New England* -21 over Indianapolis
San Diego -2.5 over Jacksonville*
Free Money Picks
Atlanta -3 over Houston*
The Texans are debating whether to sign Jeff Garcia or Jake Delhomme as a backup for T.J. Yates who replaced Matt Leinart who replaced Matt Schaub. Must I go on? The Texans do have a potent run game but they are now completely one dimensional and the one thing the Atlanta defense does well is stop the run. They rank second in rushing yards allowed giving up only 83 yards per game on the ground. I think the Texans will still be able to run effectively but not enough to win or cover. Atlanta is 5-1 over the last six games with the only loss coming in overtime to the Saints. During that 5-1 stretch their wins have been by an average of 12 points.
Green Bay -6.5 over NY Giants*
These next two lines were insulting before last night’s game and now they are even more so. Get these in early because the line will move. The Packers have inspired a new policy for the Tuesday Tycoon, repeat after me:
- The Packers have 11 wins by an average of more than 14 points a game
- Of their 11 wins only one has been by less than seven points
- We will bet the Packers every time they are favored by less than seven
New Orleans* -6.5 over Detroit
The Saints are 5-0 at home and have won those game by an average of 23 points. Fine, I admit there was a 55-point beating against the Colts in there. Even if you remove the Colts game the average is still 15. Furthermore, the only shot Detroit has at slowing Brees is by generating a pass rush without sending extra guys. Ndamukong Suh has been suspended for two games so the Lions can forget about getting that pressure. It’s possible Suh could appeal the suspension and play this week but I like this game even if he does play.
Lucas Lock Of The Week
Denver +1 over Minnesota*
Settle in because this is going to be difficult for you to process. This analysis is so in depth that it cannot be contained in this post. For the full explanation of why you must bet the lock of the week click here
In all seriousness, the Denver D is playing fierce and I expect Adrian Peterson to be out. Vegas must pay.